Preparing for the Twenty-First Century

The purpose of this research is to examine Preparing for the Twenty-First Century by Paul Kennedy. The plan of the research will be to set forth the position of the book's author in respect of his background and qualifications to write the book, and then to discuss the analytical approach Kennedy uses to elaborate his idea that the twenty-first century will emerge from a host of transitional forces that are even now at work on the international scene.

Kennedy may be seen as an expert whose emphasis is on the future of international relations by reason of his scholarly research. In The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Kennedy established credentials as a serious analyst of the cycles of international political, economic, and social power in a historical analysis of the way in which competition among empire builders has shaped the present and future. Kurth (1993) describes Kennedy as a respected diplomatic historian. Kennedy's analytical pursuits are ongoing, as evidenced by his frequent contributions to the literature of international relations.

The methodology that Kennedy uses involves a systematic examination of political history with a view toward developing a theory that can contain relevant future policy. He makes a controlled comparison of the principal components of the global political and social economy in light of a range of selected problems that evidence indicates affect the entire world, irrespective of national boundaries or ideologies. He specifies

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have a stake in the decisions made at the global-corporate level. The logic of the global marketplace pays no attention to where a product is made, but defense planners--in keeping with traditional national security thinking--are more concerned. Is it not vital, they argue, for a country to maintain its own electronics and computer industry, to preserve shipping and aerospace, to be able to produce its own software for both military and nonmilitary purposes? (Kennedy, 1993, p. 128). This argues the potential for future international political instability, even though, except in the view of extremist nationalist-mercantilist writings, corporate interests may not directly influence a political decision for war. But it also suggests the potential for social instability within countries. One analysis is that population growth in poor countries and rapid technological change in rich ones create instability and more, that "the great global changes underway are likely to weaken all nation states and steadily impoverish most of humanity" (Kurth, 1993, p. 156). In this view, which supports Kennedy, the technological revolution is a subtle threat in rich countries because those who have access to the technology are empowered in ways

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