DEMAND ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING

WalMart Stores, the world's largest retailer, operates an expanding chain of discount retail stores in 49 of the 50 states of the United States (Tucker, 1994b, p. 1653). The rapid growth strategy followed by the firm is a major factor in the continued growth in the demand for the company's products because the company's reputation for fair dealing and low prices precedes its entry into new markets.

Retail store sales growth was strong (+9.1 percent) in the United States in 1994 and is projected to be strong (+5.4 percent) in 1995 (Tucker, 1994a, p. 1627). General industry growth bodes well for WalMart sales growth.

Consumer confidence levels slipped around the time of the 1994 general election (Tucker, 1994a, p. 1627). A slippage in consumer confidence provides discount retailers with an advantage over more traditional retailers, and WalMart is the consummate discount retailer in the United States.

The unemployment rate in the United States has trended downward since the election of President Clinton (Council of Economic Advisers,

. . .
data series is obtained most frequently by finding the linear regression between a dependent and independent variable, using all prior values of the variables. Where the arithmetic trend projection relies on the use of all past values of the appropriate variables, the moving average trend projection generates a forecast for the next time period by averaging the relevant data values for a predetermined number of prior time periods. This procedure, thus, creates a socalled moving average, by which forecasts for variable values in future time periods are based only on relatively recent data, as opposed to past data which may have little relevance to the future time periods being projected. Unfortunately, the determination of how many prior time periods to include in a moving average trend determination is, essentially, a judgment call. Both simple regression analysis and multiple regression analysis may be applied in the curve fitting process for moving average trend projections. As the number of past time periods included in a moving average trend projection are increased, the forecast produced becomes closer to the forecast produced through the use of arithmetic trend projection; thus, most trend projections relying on the
. . .

Some common words found in the essay are:
Pappas Brigham, Price Index, Economic Advisers, WalMart Sales, United Tucker, Peters Armstrong, Stores United, Summary Conclusion, Analysis Barometric, Value Line, walmart sales, moving average, lagged period, regression analysis, council economic advisers, price index, economic indicator, barometric economic, council economic, economic advisers, consumer price index, barometric economic indicator, economic advisers 1994, advisers 1994, data lagged period,
Approximate Word count = 1993
Approximate Pages = 8 (250 words per page)

More Essays on DEMAND ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING