Voters and Taxes

The method that the authors use to demonstrate the link between tax hikes and loss of gubernatorial incumbency is to cross-reference published state tax data with exit polls. Such data are measured against state election results, which are of course an index of voter behavior. The decision to focus on data from 36 state races in the middle of the Reagan presidency (1986) rather than to attempt to analyze federal election results appears to be due to controversy over whether the status of the economy has predictive power for federal election results (NSV 937). The authors cite research showing that the status of the national economy "most influences state-level voting" (NSV 937). They also note that previous election-analysis research has focused on the personalities of candidates and the issue fronts on which they run their campaign; certainly media coverage of state and national electi

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the local and national economies and whether and/or how many state taxes were raised, plus the characteristics of voters (e.g., socioeconomic status, social demographics) and candidates. The study results show a significant correlation between an increased tax burden and a failure to reelect a governor associated with the increase. In gubernatorial races where reelection was not an option, the incumbent-party candidate in an open race was found to be less likely to be elected than the out-party candidate. Indeed, in the 1986 gubernatorial races, economics as experienced at the practical, voter-household level, appears to have exerted a greater influence than ideology per se. Another view of the relevance of voter behavior and the tax burden to the career of state governors is offered by Kone and Winters. Using data from gubernatorial elections between 1957 and 1985, they find not a strong but rather a weak statistical correlation between taxation and what they call a "taxpayer retribution hypothesis" (KW 22). There is, however, one apparent exception to the weak correlation between taxes and governors' races: sales taxes, for which the evidence is that governors may be punished at the polls. By no means do Kone and Winters argu
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Approximate Word count = 1260
Approximate Pages = 5 (250 words per page)

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