First & Third Waves of Change
Creating a New Civilization
The Firs
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The First Wave of change, launched by the agricultural revolution of 10,000 years ago, led to the transition from hunting, gathering and foraging to the great peasant societies of the past. The Second Wave of change, triggered by the industrial revolution some 300 years ago, gave rise to a new factory-centered civilization. It is still spreading in some parts of the world as hundreds of millions of peasants, from Mexico to China, flood into the cities searching for minimal-skill jobs on factory assembly lines. But even as the Second Wave plays itself out on the global stage, America and other countries are already feeling the impact of a gigantic Third Wave partly based on the substitution of mental power for muscle power in the economy (Toffler & Toffler, 1995, pp. 19-20).The Third Wave is more than just technology and economics. Our transition from a brute force to a brain force economy is accompanied by painful social, cultural, institutional, moral, and political dislocations. The Third Wave helps explain why so many industrial-era institutions, from giant corporations to governments, are dinosaurs gasping for their last breath. It is why America is suffering from simultaneous crises in everything from the education system, the health system, and the family system to the justice system. They were designed to work in a mass industrial society. But America has left that behind. Driven by global competition and other forces, America today is c
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s by homing in on their gene structures. Virtual reality points to a boundless capacity for deception. Picture, say, Saddam Hussein using virtual reality to create a phony bulletin on CNN showing Israeli paratroopers attacking Mecca. Such decentralization of society will doubtless pose serious problems to the functioning of politics and the economy. Even the Tofflers recognize that their may be dangers in this ônew civilization.ö
In contrast to the Tofflers, who put forth a linear, straight-ahead view of world progress, history may not be linear at all but revolve in cycles. William Strauss and Neil Howe, for example, suggest four major cycles in human history (Strauss & Howe, 1997, pp. 10-14). The First Turning, from 1945 to the mid-1960s, was a spiritual high, a time of post-World War II stability in which institutions grew stronger, individualism grew weaker and culture was wholesome. The Second Turning, from the mid-1960s until the end of the 1970s, was a time of spiritual upheaval, with the existing order under attack from new values - hippies, student revolts, anti-Vietnam War protests. The Third Turning, the era we are in today, is an unraveling, a time of spiritual decline, of weakening institutions and strengthening ind
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Approximate Word count = 1459
Approximate Pages = 6 (250 words per page)
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