Expert systems

Expert systems are expected to alter the way we do business as new applications are found and as more complex systems are developed and implemented. Expert systems constitute an application of artificial intelligence (AI) to business uses. Since World War II, scientists have been working to develop computers that would act more like human beings, and this entire research effort, which includes decision-making systems, robotic devices, and attempts at computer speech, comes under the heading of artificial intelligence. Some of these AI methods have emerged from the laboratory in recent years and have been applied to various business uses. One type that has been used is a collection of AI techniques enabling computers to assist people in analyzing problems and making decisions. The result is the implementation of knowledge-based systems, as they are called, to numerous commercial applications. Expert systems are also in development that wold assist managers with complex planing and scheduling tasks, the diagnosis of diseases, location of mineral deposits, the configuration of complex computer hardware, and offering aid to mechanics in troubleshooting locomotive problems.

Harmon and King (1985) point out that as recently as 1980 expert systems research was still confined to a few university research laboratories, while today the United States, Japan, England, and the European Economic Community are all in the process of launching major research programs to

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them in performing the tasks. Moreover, the concepts underlying expert systems will change the way we think about the tasks that people perform" (p. 2). Many analysts emphasize that there will be profound changes in the way we think about and perform tasks in organizations as expert systems are developed to handle more complex structures and data. Those expert systems that are designed to make decisions in the organization are discussed under the heading of decision support, and the decision-making advantage is seen as paramount by a number of analysts. Beerel (1987) finds that strategic decision making is one of the primary functions of management and that to carry it out effectively, distinct goals need to be set. Generally, the manager analyzes information and makes inferences at an unconscious level: "As we are confronted with both so much information, and so many decisions to be made, a large portion of the decision-making process would appear to be automatic" (pp. 45, 47). Managers try to minimize the risk of being unprepared or of making the wrong decision, and they do this all the more as the complexities increase. The decision maker seeks decision support from a number of sources to cope with complex or multiple

Category: Business - E