FORECASTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Both the methodology and technology for the forecasting of severe thunderstorms, however, have improved dramatically over the past several years. Improvements have occurred in the use of numerical prediction, microburst modeling, data profilers, Doppler radar data, surface mesonet data developed by satellites, the use of special soundings, and the application of real-time automated identification and tracking based on volume-scan weather radar data.

Severe thunderstorms are capable of producing some of the most violent and unpredictable of weather conditions. The ability to provide accurate and timely forecasts of severe thunderstorms, thus, is an issue of significant concern. This research examines recent developments in the methodology and technology employed in thunderstorm forecasting.

The data used in this examination consists of published studies of the forecasting of thunderstorms. Where appropriate and illustrative, quantitative data included in these published studies are reported and discussed in this examination.

Where feasible within the context of the p

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urs, "the increasing cirrus shading" from a mountain thunderstorm, and "the lack of any additional forcing mechanism prior to the appearance of outflow" (p. 1849). Even after outflow appeared, "it was still difficult to estimate its significance and anticipate the explosive, concentrated development that occurred between 2115 and 2140" (pp. 1849-1850). Mesonet time series data for four reporting stations surrounding the area of collision from 2000 hours to 2200 hours on 26 July 1985 are summarized in Table 1, which may be found on the following page. The outflow was not detected by PROFS RT85 or C12/PROFS until the outflow was almost at Boulder. "Adding to the problem of determining the significance of outflow . . . in real time was some confusion because of the wind velocity changes" at Erie, which occurred about the time of the change at Boulder--refer to Table 1 (p. 1850). One suggestion of this finding was that "a looping capability on the radar display would have helped. Satellite data "were not useful for tracking this outflow because anvil cloudiness obstructed any view of the lower troposphere" (p. 1850). The tornadic development was not expected even though the Doppler radar was located within 20 kilometers of the
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Some common words found in the essay are:
Szoke Brady, Proctor Bowles, Predictability Limit, PROFS RT85, Dixon Wiener, Abstract Thunderstorm, Westcott Scott, Introduction Severe, Traditional NWP, Boulder--refer Table, szoke brady, tornadic thunderstorm, forecasting thunderstorms, thunderstorm forecasting, doppler radar, northeastern colorado, identification tracking, 26 july, table 1, numerical prediction, kennedy westcott scott, 26 july 1985, automated identification tracking, real-time automated identification, national weather service,
Approximate Word count = 2117
Approximate Pages = 8 (250 words per page)

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