The future of U.S.-Russian relations

The future of U.S.-Russian relations is uncertain. Much depends on the outcome of the presidential situation in Russia, where recently re-elected Boris Yeltsin has been suffering from an ongoing series of health problems which triggered a series of inner circle moves as possible successors jockey for position in the inevitable successor sweepstakes. Yeltsin, who trailed the pack of presidential candidates during most of the election campaign, may be succeeded from within his coalition by someone such as former General Lebed. Other possibilities include former candidates from the recent campaign. The most popular candidate is Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the unreformed Communist Party. Another dangerous contender is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, an anti-American ultra-nationalist. Victory for either Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky would seriously endanger Russia's young democracy and market reforms. A communist or extreme nationalist at the helm could well put the world's second-largest nuclear power on a collision course with the United States in Central Europe or the Middle East.

President Yeltsin's own prospects look grim. His health is failing, and Russia's internal economic and political crisis continues unabated. The war in the breakaway republic of Chechnya and Russia's economic difficulties have eroded the popularity of Yeltsin's administration to the point where polls show approval ratings at around 10 percent to 15 percent. Moscow is awash in rumors of coups a

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eltsin, who at the time was President of the Russian Federation, then a republic of the Soviet Union. The coup leaders were put on trial and jailed but were released in 1993 (White, et al, 1994). The Soviet Union dissolved on December 25, 1991. Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and other former Soviet republics became independent. These are often referred to as the Newly Independent States (NIS) (White, 1993). On September 21, 1993, Boris Yeltsin disbanded the Soviet-era Russian parliament. The recalcitrant Supreme Soviet of Russia had become the site of intense opposition to Yeltsin and his market reforms. After a week-long standoff, Yeltsin ordered the Russian military to fire on the parliament building, called the " White House;" at least 130 people were killed. The new parliament, named the State Duma, was elected on December 12, 1993 (Lowenthal, 1995). Boris Yeltsin's health is failing. He has had two heart attacks in four months, his behavior is sometimes erratic, and intelligence services report that he has a serious drinking problem. Since 1992, Russia has received over $4 billion in direct U.S. aid, over $20 billion in total Western aid, and over $50 billion in loans from the G-7 countries and multilateral fin

Category: Foreign - T