The future of U.S.-Russian relations is uncertain. Much depends on the outcome of the presidential situation in Russia, where recently re-elected Boris Yeltsin has been suffering from an ongoing series of health problems which triggered a series of inner circle moves as possible successors jockey for position in the inevitable successor sweepstakes. Yeltsin, who trailed the pack of presidential candidates during most of the election campaign, may be succeeded from within his coalition by someone such as former General Lebed. Other possibilities include former candidates from the recent campaign. The most popular candidate is Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the unreformed Communist Party. Another dangerous contender is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, an anti-American ultra-nationalist. Victory for either Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky would seriously endanger Russia's young democracy and market reforms. A communist or extreme nationalist at the helm could well put the world's second-largest nuclear power on a collision course with the United States in Central Europe or the Middle East.
President Yeltsin's own prospects look grim. His health is failing, and Russia's internal economic and political crisis continues unabated. The war in the breakaway republic of Chechnya and Russia's economic difficulties have eroded the popularity of Yeltsin's administration to the point where polls show approval ratings at around 10 percent to 15 percent. Moscow is awash in rumors of coups and falsified presidential elections (Matlock, 1996).
No one knows for certain who will rule in Moscow by the end of the decade, but the period of romantic partnership with the U.S. and the West is over. Russia is striking out on its own, taking a path that already has led to confrontation with the West. In fact, Russia is in the midst of a political turbulence fraught with dangers for the West, and the chances are good that the next American President will have to deal wi...