CANADA'S CHANGING ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: 2004-2029
The purpose of this paper is to consider how Canada's role in the global economy will change over the coming 25 five years, or from today through 2029. It is almost always risky to project change in economies ù global or national ù because some many dynamic and volatile factors affect economic performance. In 1999, as an example, an article in the prestigious OECD Observer predicted that the global economy was "on the threshold of a tantalising opportunity ù the possibility of a sustained long boom over the first decades of the next millennium. It is an opportunity we should not miss" (Miller 1).
The prediction was quite wrong, although a "long boom" may yet develop in the "first decades" of the 21st century. Less than a year after making that prediction, the global economy went into a tailspin that was blamed, correctly in part, on a bubble in the Internet economy. The bubble, however, was not the only culprit. The global airline industry, among others, was already on the ropes. Then, the terrorist attacks on the United States in September 2001 led to a further retrenchment in global economic activity. The OECD can be forgiven for not projecting the economic impact of the terrorist attacks. It cannot be forgiven for overlooking the Internet bubble and the presence of serious and growing problems in several global industries, of which airlines were just one.
Thus, this writer enters (with more than a little trepidation) into the realm of crystal ball projections to consider how Canada's role in the global economy will change from today through 2029. The disclaimer that must be added is that the projections may not be on target.
How Canada's Global Economic Role May Change
Canadian economists frequently attempt to explain the nation's economic performance within the context of staples theory. The staples theory of economic growth is not discussed widely...