Birth Cohort Size, Crime and Alcoholism

Steffensmeier, Streifel and Shihadeh (1992) have noted that:

Involvement in crime generally diminishes after adolescence, implying that fluctuations in the age composition of a population may have a significant impact on overall crime rate. (p. 306)

The authors provide an example in the dramatic increases in the rates of serious crime in American observed during the 1960s being linked to the rise in babies associated with the post-World-War II "baby boom." Similarly, they note that the fact that these rates leveled off in the 1980s was associated with the post-1960s "baby bust."

Given that there appears to be a systematic association between crime and birth cohort size, Easterlin (1978, 1987) contended that the general volume of crime may also be related to birth cohort size. However, tests of Easterlin's views (e.g., Easterlin & Shapiro, 1979; Maxim, 1985; O'Brien, 1989; Steffensmeier, Streifel & Harer, 1987) have yielded mixed results.

According to Steffensmeier, Streifel and Shihadeh (1992), the mixed findings are primarily due to methodologically problematic research designs. Design flaws are said to include:

1. Failure to control for the linear dependence between age, period, and cohort, so that cohort effects could not be isolated.

2. Use of total crime rates rather than specific crime rates as dependent variables--a procedure that confounds age, composition, period and cohort size.

. . .
s parameters log-linear model, with log-odds of arrest as the dependent variable, and with the just-identified model having the two oldest cohorts set equal. Such models were run for urban arrest data in the UCR for ages 15 to 24 during the 195377, 195877, and 196477 periods. In addition, an analysis was undertaken on ages 15 to 49 for 195377 by forming five-year age groups. A second set of analyses was undertaken using linear models. The dependent variable was arc sine SQRT. (where p is the probability of arrest). In the model, ages 15 to 24 could be combined with the five-year groupings for ages 25 to 49. Predictions for the effects of age on arrests were made for each of the three types of crime. Rosenthal (1980) reported that the predictions were borne out by the results, with property crime peaking at age 16, violent crime peaking at age 24, and public order crime peaking at ages 40 through 44. Period and cohort effects were combined. For property crimes, each successive cohort, compared to earlier cohorts, showed both an increase in arrest rates at young ages, and less of a tendency to decrease in arrest rates later in life. For both violent and public order crimes, successive cohorts had an increased arrest rat
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Approximate Pages = 15 (250 words per page)

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