This research proposes an American security policy for the Middle East for the 1991 2000 time period. This proposed pol icy is developed through consideration of (1) the factors caus ing the Middle East to be important to the United States, to include current American interests and objectives, (2) assump tions relating to the Middle East for the 1991 2000 time per iod, which may be expected to influence American policy, and (3) proposed policy changes for the United States with respectto the Middle East.
FACTORS CAUSING THE MIDDLE EAST TO BE
IMPORTANT TO THE UNITED STATES, AND CURRENT AMERICAN INTERESTS AND OBJECTIVES
Three factors combine to cause the Middle East to be impor tant to the United States. These same three factors dictate current American interests and objectives in the area. These three factors are (1) energy supplies, (2) support for the state of Israel, and (3) terrorism.
Overall, the United States produces energy in an amount equivalent to 83.7 percent of its total energy consumption (Energy Information Administration, 1990). Aggregate measures,
however, do not reflect the mismatch between the country's energy production mix, and the energy consumption mix required to support its economic and military needs. As a result of the mismatch between the energy production mix and the energy con sumption mix in the United States, the country's net energy imports are far greater than the aggregate data indicate would be the case. Thus, rather than importing 16.3 percent of the energy it consumes, the country imports 21.9 percent of the energy it consumes, at a time when there exists no national emergency to cause an escalation in energy demand. An out break of hostilities between American and Iraqui forces, how ever, could quickly result in a demand escalation.
The energy production/consumption mismatch for the United States is even more serious than is indicated by the country's net energy imports ...