U.S. International Economic Policy
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Modelski, George. "Long Cycles and the Strategy of U.S. International Economic Policy." In Avia, William P., and Rapen, David. (Eds.). America in A Changing World Political Economy. New York: Longman Publishers, 1982, 97116.Modelski (1982, p. 97) contended that, in the modern world system, political and economic processes are linked in a model of alternating innovations. In this model, the political process is viewed by Modelski (1982, p. 97) as the dependency of the world political system on the rise of world powers. Similarly, the economic process is viewed in the model as the dependency international economic system on the formation of lead economics. The alternating innovations model posits that "generationlong periods of fundamental political innovation alternate with those of . . . fundamental shifts in the economy" of the world (Modelski, 1982, p. 97). The application of the model of alternating innovations led Modelski (1982, pp. 9798) to the conclusion that world leadership is exercised by lead countries during long cycles. Modelski (1982, p. 98) defined world leadership as "the performance, by a nationstate, of the functions of ordering and maintaining globallevel interactions." The model assumes both political and economic dimensions for these functions. The model also assumes that "(1) World powers have had lead economies; (2) world powers have constructed the framework of the global economy . . .," (and) "Principal challeng
. . .
e represented as X1O X2O X3O XnthO, where equivalent samples at different time points are selected and assessed to test the relationships posited in the four hypotheses formulated.
Campbell and Stanley (1963, pp. 670) described and explained research designs with the view in mind that such designs would be applied in the area of educational research wherein variables are most frequently manipulatable. While the research designs described and explained by Campbell and Stanley (1963, pp. 670) are applicable to research in disciplines other than education, it is a stretching of credulity to attempt to apply these experimental models to historical research involving political and economic systems and innovations.
Results
Modelski (1982, pp. 110112) did not apply statistical analysis in the research performed to test the four hypotheses formulated. Rather, the data were collected and explored in an
effort to identify patterns that conformed to the outcomes postulated in the model of alternating innovations. Modelski's (1982, pp. 110, 112) were as follows:
1. "The prominent political transformations and the political growth industries they tend to create . . . correspond strikingly and almost without major exception
. . .
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Approximate Word count = 2224
Approximate Pages = 9 (250 words per page)
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