Changes in International Geopolitical Circumstances

In the next twenty years, the international geopolitical circumstances will change. The rise of nationalism as a force used by politicians in domestic situations to maintain their status, will cause international and domestic boundaries to move. Conflict over territory and power is inevitable when ethnicity becomes a political issue. The use of nationalism as a mechanism for inflaming the various ethnic majorities into calling for self-determination and their own nation-states is on the rise. This is true especially in the former countries of the Soviet Union. The domestic conflicts, which result from the call for ethnically pure states, will result in a call for increased international involvement in domestic affairs of these countries in conflict. A counterpoint to the increased need for international involvement to control domestic conflict is the decline of influence of the superpowers and their lack of interest in becoming involved in other countries internal disputes.

The United States will not remain a hegemonic world power. It will be replaced as world leader by three regional centers of power. These will be led by the United States in the Americas, Japan in Asia, and Europe will lead for the countries of the COMECON and Africa. Each of these regions will become more of an autarchy with time. The balance of power on the international scene will be shared. In each region a dominant player or organization will emerge. Politics will become more regional

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e foundation for national unity and patriotism. The "national principle" defines the nation in terms of ethnicity and the concepts of "blood and soil". By defining a state as a nation-state it immediately sets the majority and minority ethnic groups apart. The majority ethnic group forms the political nation and the minorities are left with fewer rights, even if they are included or tolerated in the state. Sovereignty rests with the ethnic group in power. When political parties are based primarily on the principle of ethnicity, at least one ethnic group is always without power or recourse. Violent conflict along ethnic cleavages is incited by the elite in order to cause a domestic political situation where ethnicity is the only politically germane identity. The political elite constructs the individual interests of the ethnic group in power in terms of a threat to the community which is also defined in ethnic terms. The central challenge facing these new democracies is the challenge of nationalism. The politics of the ethnic parties and the separatist movements within the states borders inflaming each group to violent conflict will be the more important problem. The link between ethnicity and international co

Category: Government - C