In the next twenty years, the international geopolitical circumstances will change. The rise of nationalism as a force used by politicians in domestic situations to maintain their status, will cause international and domestic boundaries to move. Conflict over territory and power is inevitable when ethnicity becomes a political issue. The use of nationalism as a mechanism for inflaming the various ethnic majorities into calling for self-determination and their own nation-states is on the rise. This is true especially in the former countries of the Soviet Union. The domestic conflicts, which result from the call for ethnically pure states, will result in a call for increased international involvement in domestic affairs of these countries in conflict. A counterpoint to the increased need for international involvement to control domestic conflict is the decline of influence of the superpowers and their lack of interest in becoming involved in other countries internal disputes.
The United States will not remain a hegemonic world power. It will be replaced as world leader by three regional centers of power. These will be led by the United States in the Americas, Japan in Asia, and Europe will lead for the countries of the COMECON and Africa. Each of these regions will become more of an autarchy with time. The balance of power on the international scene will be shared. In each region a dominant player or organization will emerge. Politics will become more regional; business will continue to be international in scope.
The movement toward ethnic nationalism began earlier this century. In 1919, in his Fourteen Points, Woodrow Wilson gave legitimacy to an ethnic nation-state's right to self-determination. The call for national self-determination of a people is fraught with difficulties. A nation has been defined as having a common language, culture and or heritage. These aspects of a society do not always coexist ...