Future Balance of Geopolitical Power THE NATION STATE AND NATIONALISM IN THE

THE FUTURE GEOPOLITICAL WORLD ORDER

This research paper describes the likely balance of

geopolitical power 20 years from now. During the next 20 years,

the balance of world power will continue to be governed primarily

by the relationships between a pentarchy, the United States, a

combination of nationstates in Western Europe, Russia, Japan and

China. The relative economic power of these nations will change

and the major nations of East Asia will assume greater relative

importance. The geopolitical power balance will also be

influenced by various crosscurrents, including globalization

of the world economy and the rise of nationalism and other

threats to international order and domestic legitimacy and

tranquility. These trends are likely to reduce the relative power

of the traditional capitalist nation states, including the

The Shift Toward a MultiPolar World

During the seventeenth and eighteeth centuries, strong

territoriallybased nationstates emerged in Western Europe "as

the primary focus of national identity and problemsolving

capability."1Rivalries among the principal states of Western

Europe for hegemony in Europe and later for control of the

natural resources and markets on its periphery were the

principal source of international conflict during the period up

to 1945. Between 1945 and 1990, inter

. . .
roducing semiconductors, color television sets and autos.14These companies will, nevertheless, be under intense pressure "to rationalize product, cut internal costs, and search for the least expensive production," not only in East Asia but also in Eastern Europe, South Asia, Latin America and other developing countries.15Kennedy says, "there will be a shift, both in shares of total world product and total military spending, from the five largest concentrations of strength to many more nations, but that will be a gradual process."16 NorthSouth Tensions As globalization of the world economy proceeds, some parts of the less developed world are more likely to develop their economies and national power bases than others. The Third World contains three fourths of the world's population but only one third of its income. In an expanding world economy, rising prosperity should benefit all economies which organize themselves internally to share in its benefits. Very large capital flows, which now exceed by 25 times the volume of international trade, will in part go to the developing world. Between 1990 and 1993, foreign direct investments by the developed world to the developi
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Some common words found in the essay are:
Alden Schurmann, Western Europe, East Asia, Western European, Third World, War United, Soviet Union, China Japan, Burnett Taylor, Kuala Lumpur, east asia, developing countries, western europe, foreign policy, third world, world economy, foreign policy summer, current history, december 1994, international trade, policy summer, globalization world economy, ethnic conflict foreign, conflict foreign policy, containing ethnic conflict,
Approximate Word count = 2851
Approximate Pages = 11 (250 words per page)