Future Balance of Geopolitical Power THE NATION STATE AND NATIONALISM IN THE

THE FUTURE GEOPOLITICAL WORLD ORDER

This research paper describes the likely balance of

geopolitical power 20 years from now. During the next 20 years,

the balance of world power will continue to be governed primarily

by the relationships between a pentarchy, the United States, a

combination of nationstates in Western Europe, Russia, Japan and

China. The relative economic power of these nations will change

and the major nations of East Asia will assume greater relative

importance. The geopolitical power balance will also be

influenced by various crosscurrents, including globalization

of the world economy and the rise of nationalism and other

threats to international order and domestic legitimacy and

tranquility. These trends are likely to reduce the relative power

of the traditional capitalist nation states, including the

The Shift Toward a MultiPolar World

During the seventeenth and eighteeth centuries, strong

territoriallybased nationstates emerged in Western Europe "as

the primary focus of national identity and problemsolving

capability."1Rivalries among the principal states of Western

Europe for hegemony in Europe and later for control of the

natural resources and markets on its periphery were the

principal source of international conflict during the period up

to 1945. Between 1945 and 1990, inter