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Economic Indicators Study This is a statistical study of certain economic

This is a statistical study of certain economic indicators. Based on the premise that the performance of these past economic indicators is a good predictor of their future behavior, each of the charts provided below was constructed based on historical data found at the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics website. The forecasted information was done using linear regression analysis, which is one of the features or functions of the Microsoft Excel.

In general, the goal of linear regression is to find the line that best predicts Y point from specific data points. Linear regression does this by finding the line that minimizes the sum of the squares of the vertical distances of the points from the line. The mathematical goal of linear regression is to adjust the values of slope and intercept to find the line that best predicts Y [an unknown data point] from X which represent a number of known data points. In this exercise, the goal was to predict or forecast changes in business productivity, the net number of new jobs created, and changes in personal income for an eighteen month period using either a month by month or a quarter by quarter comparison.

It is difficult to explain the level of confidence in the forecasts provided as part of this report. The linear regression analysis was computed with using a 95% confidence interval. This means that there is a 95% chance that the interval of the slope contains the true value of the slope.

There are a number of factors that influence the economic indicators studied in this paper. For example, changes in fiscal and monetary policy would certainly impact the forecasts. Since it is beyond the scope of this exercise to try to forecast or guess what actions the federal government and the Federal Reserve Bank might take over the next eighteen months, these forecasts were done using linear regression based on an assumption that the past is a good predictor of future events.

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Economic Indicators Study This is a statistical study of certain economic. (1969, December 31). In LotsofEssays.com. Retrieved 12:50, March 28, 2024, from https://www.lotsofessays.com/viewpaper/1703731.html