THE EFFECTS ON THE CIVIL AIR RESERVE FLEET OF MARGINAL AIRLINE INDUSTRY PROFITABILITY
The Civilian Air Reserve Fleet (CRAF) is entirely dependent on the existence of a competitive, operationally effective, and cooperative of a private airline industry in the United States (US). Each of these factors is affected by airline profitability. Profitability in the American airline industry, however, has been an on an off affair since the advent of deregulation in the industry at the beginning of the 1980s. Airline deregulation coincided with the advent of the Reagan Administration and the most severe economic recession in the US since the 1930s. As a consequence of the chaos introduced by deregulation and the decline in traffic stemming from the recession, profits in the industry plunged. By the mid 1980s, industry profitability had recovered, although some individual airlines some old and some new failed to survive (Collins, 1991). Since 1988, however, airline industry profitability has once again been in steady decline (Collins, 1991).
The CRAF is heavily dependent on the major trunk carriers, because these airlines are the ones most likely to possess the type of aircraft required for CRAF support. Profitability among the major carriers is even more dismal than that for the industry as a whole. American Airlines reached a post deregulation profitability peak in 1985 (Collins, 1991b). The profitability peak came for Continental Airlines, in 1986 (Collins, 1991c); for Delta in 1985 (Sharav, 1991a); for United in 1988 (Sharav, 1991b); and for US Air in 1984 (Sharav, 1991c). For Pan American and TWA, there have been no profits since deregulation (Collins, 1991d), and Eastern and Braniff, once major trunk carriers, not longer exist.
This research examines US national security, as it may be affected by the impact on the CRAF of declining profitability in the American airline industry. The topic is examined through (1) descri...