This paper will analyze a speech by James A. Baker, the United States Secretary of State. The title of the speech is "America and the Collapse of the Soviet Empire: What Has to be Done" and it was delivered at Princeton University on December 12, 1991. The historical context of this speech is the recent decline of Communism in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. As a result of this historic change, the Cold War which engaged the United States and the Soviet Union since the end of the Second World War has finally come to an end. As James Baker notes, it is now time for the development of new relationships between the United States and the republics which previously formed the Soviet Union. In addition, it is now time for the establishment of new power relations in the world as a whole. There are many dangers inherent in these changes. However, Baker points out that there are also many opportunities. In particular, Baker emphasizes that the United States is now faced with the opportunity to lead the world toward increased peace and prosperity in the future.
In order to analyze Baker's speech and the effectiveness of its message, it is necessary to first develop a criteria for analysis based on persuasion theory and research. One of the most important elements in persuasive communication is establishing a central theme and sticking to it. According to Humes, the central theme should be repeated periodically throughout the speech (Humes, 1988, p. 31). However, the theme need not be repeated literally every time it is referred to. In fact, good speakers generally use quotations, anecdotes, analogies, and other devices in order to vary the central message whenever it is repeated (p. 32). Humes also points out that it is important to fit any secondary themes under the "umbrella" of the central theme (p. 30). Failing to keep the speech as a whole focused on the main theme will result in a weakening of the persuasive effect...