Voter turnout should be lower on days with inclement weather because people are reluctant to go out in the rain to vote. However, this may not be the case, and indeed this may not be an issue which can be determined with any certainty, given the number of variables involved. Very few studies deal with the issue, though the public and the press seem to believe that bad weather means low voter turnout. Voter turnout has been declining for some time. Turnout seems best for presidential elections, which might be expected because of the higher level of interest in that election over off-year elections, state and local elections, and special elections. Presidential elections are analyzed and debated for a long time before election day and are also accompanied by huge expenditures on advertising and other actions to generate interest.
Most of the belief that rain depresses voter turnout derives from anecdotal evidence rather than serious studies of the issue. Newspapers often cite the weather as a reason for low voter turnout, as in a story from Detroit in October, 1997:
In the last 30 years, only one other Detroit election a 1984 primary showed as poor a turnout as last month's 17.4 percent. Rainy weather, a lack of controversy, and a lopsided mayoral race kept voters home, Detroit pollster Jack Moore said (Gerritt A1).
Election officials often assume that the weather will have an effect because they have been convinced by references such as the above. A school board election in 1996 on Long Island evoked such a response from a local official:
"And it's supposed to rain later," the official added in a tone of foreboding, fearful that worsening weather would keep parents from the polls later on, after returning home from work (Eisenberg, Gray, Markon, McCarthy, and Topping A4).
Presidential election stories include the degree weather may have held down voting in different parts of the country:
Tuesday ...