PROPOSITION 184 ("THREE STRIKES") AS A DETERRENT

Proposition 184, the "tough 'three strikes' sentencing law, was approved "overwhelmingly" by California voters on 8 November 1994. Legally, the approval of Proposition 184 was a redundant action because the language of Proposition 184 "restates word for word the 'three strikes' sentencing statute Gov. Pete Wilson signed into law in March." The justification for proceeding with the initiative process when an identical "three strikes" law was already on the books was to assure that "legislators realize it would be political suicide to water down the new law."

The California "three strikes" law is, depending upon one's perspective, a deterrent to criminal behavior, an act of societal revenge, an assurance that justice will prevail, or largely an expensive exercise in futility. The objective of this current research is to assess the probability that California's "three strikes" law will deter the commission of the offenses that the law is intended to punish.

The three strikes amendment to the California Penal Code that became law on 8 March 1994 and which was reaffirmed by the passage of Proposition 184 on 8 November 1994 does not restrict three strikes penalties to violent offenses. The law states that a defendant with one previous conviction for a serious felony offense if convicted on another serious felony charge will receive a sen

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apping. The logic of the argument is that a kidnapper reduces the probability of conviction is the victim is killed, and is thereby unable to testify against the perpetrator of the crime. Other critics of the three strikes concept point out that it is just more of the same in American criminal justice, and that incarceration has not proved to be an effective deterrent to the commission of crimes in the United States. Over the past 20 years, the prison population in the United States has soared along with criminal activity. The United States has the highest incarceration rate (450 persons for each 100,000 of population) in the world. The incarceration in France, by contrast, is 81 persons per 100,000 of population. Simultaneously, the rate of violent crime in the United States remains the worst among all developed nations. A charge is also made that laws mandating harsh punishment frequently lead to lower conviction rates. This effect has been measured in relation to the willingness of juries to convict in capital punishment cases, and the contention is made that a similar effect will occur in relation to "three strikes" cases involving non violent offenses. Analysis of the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment As indica
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