The purpose of this study was to assess the probability that Middle East member countries of OPEC would use the oil weapon against the United States. The posited motivation for use of the oil weapon was dissatisfaction with the foreign policy of the United States toward Middle East countries and the treatment of people of Middle Eastern, non Jewish, heritage entering the United States subsequent to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the united States. The definition of use of the oil weapon was a curtailment of crude oil exports to the United States by Middle East member countries of OPEC.
The hypothesis investigated was that the Middle East member countries of OPEC will not use the oil weapon against the United States because the economic costs to Middle East OPEC member countries of such an action will outweigh the economic benefits accruing to those countries from such an action. The findings of the research performed supported the hypothesis, which then was, by inference, accepted.
Middle East oil-exporting nations used oil as a weapon against developed, oil-importing Western nations twice in the 1970s. The motivations underlying the cut-off of oil supplies to Western oil-importing nations were both economic and political in character. In an economic context, the oil-exporting nations sought to gain control over their petroleum resources from international oil companies and to gain a transfer of wealth from developed nations, oil-importing nations to the oil-exporting nations. The oil boycotts were largely successful in relation to the economic goals. In a political context, the Middle East oil-exporting nations sought to weaken the uncritical Western support for Israel, especially the support provided to Israel by the United States. The oil boycotts were largely unsuccessful in this context (ôThe Cartel That Fell Out of the DriverÆs Seatö, 1989).
The turmoil in the Middle East in 2002 raises the specter...