Alvin Toffler's Concept of Three Waves

Alvin Toffler develops a concept that our world and society, particularly our economic progression, is composed of three "waves." The first wave was the agricultural wave that lasts for thousands of years. Then came the second wave, the industrial wave that has only been operative for the last 300 years.

It is Toffler's contention that the second wave, industrialization, has already peaked, and is no longer meeting the needs of the populace. He cites the great diversities now present in our societies and says that the limited multinational corporations cannot deliver to the consumers these diverse needs. Consequently, Toffler is consumed with what he terms the third wave, the wave that replaces industrialism, as we have known it.

It is at this point that Toffler leaves this reader confused, as he is apparently confused as well, on just what the third wave really is. He blithely lumps the Communist "world," the Socialist "world," and the Capitalist "world" all into one lump of outdated industrialism. He then goes into long expositions on how all of these entities will have to reckon with the "replacement" for industrialism in the third wave.

The weakness in the book is that he never goes beyond a whole host of vague notions on what the third wave is. He alludes to better decision-making, a more accommodating corporation, or socialist organization, sprinkled with sentimental thoughts of a "cottage electronics economy" with a sense of community, as in "

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should play God, as it will be possible, for example, to breed people with cow-like stomachs, and feed them accordingly. Also, an "inferior" human being could be bred to do boring tasks, and a genius-type could be bred as well. Wave two thought, morals, and mores wouldn't be able to cope with this kind of decision-making. There is a group of scientists who consider themselves the "techno-rebels" and Toffler says that whether they know it or not, they are part of the third wave. These techno-rebels believe that man should control the technology, and not the other way around, and this in turn will humanize technology. Another area that Toffler claims is third wave activity is what is happening in the media. He says the media are being "demassified" and that a wider choice is available to relatively fewer audiences, but in "blips" -fast, quick segments -and so much that all of us are receiving a staggering amount of information to trade and share. Also, Toffler comes up with the possibilities of brain chemistry improving people's minds, and computers that eventually will write on paper when talked to through a microphone. The author also posits the idea that an electronic cottage industry will develop, and here the nuclear

Category: Economics - A