Conclusion: Consequences and Prospects
Introduction: Why the Iranian Revolution?
Possibly the single most important development in the last half-century of Middle Eastern history, and from an American perspective the most alarming, has been the rise of Islamism or Islamic fundamentalism. The critical moment in this development was the overthrow of the last Shah of Iran in 1979 and the establishment of the Iranian revolutionary Islamist government. This revolution unleashed forces across the Muslim world which have yet to play out to their conclusion.
The following discussion considers the long-term and short-term causes of the Iranian revolution. In summary, the long-term cause was the Iranian struggle for a political development to match its social and economic modernization. The short-term cause was the conditions that caused the Iranian revolution to take a Shia Muslim form.
Until nearly the end of the 19th century, Iran (still called Persia by Westerners until well into the 20th century) was not so much a country as a world unto itself, a vast and complex mosaic. The Shahs of the Qajar dynasty surrounded themselves with the trappings of absolute monarchy, but they governed not so much by royal command as by a sort of internal diplomacy, balancing tribe against tribe, quarter against quarter, faction against faction. 19th century Western travelers, who from their background would readily have bought into the image of Oriental despotism, frequently noted that actual government in Iran depended implicitly on consent of the governed. Often it was nearly explicit:
If a large majority are determined to have the kadkhuda out, not I nor even the Prince, nor the Shah himself, can prevent their doing so .... I give the term elections to this business because I have no other word for it, but they do not meet and vote. The thing is arranged amongst themselves, they meet and talk the matter over and whenever a larg...