In 1993, Alvin and Heidi Toffler wrote a book called War and Anti-War, in which they suggested that an electronic Pearl Harbor (EPH) was just waiting to happen. (1) Since then, the possibility of EPH has been debated by many and is regarded as a certainty by some. Admiral Herbert Brown, Deputy Commander of U.S. Space Command, Unified Command with responsibility for cyber war, said on the April 9, 2000 ô60 Minutesö programÆs Cyber War segment, ôVirtually any country that has a computer has an opportunity to enter into cyberspace and be disruptiveà.[The ability to bring down a power grid] is absolutely real.ö (2) Richard Clarke, Director of Cyber Security on the Homeland Defense Council, stated on November 4, 1999, ôWe could wake up one morning and find a city, or a sector of the country, or the whole country have an electric power problemàbecause there was a surprise attack using information warfare.ö (3)
Clearly, experts believe that an electronic Pearl Harbor is within the realm of possibility. The question, then, is whether it is likely. Interestingly, many other experts believe not. David Isenberg, an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, states
The problem is that we have been inundated by inaccurate and misleading reporting about the information warfare (which is usually encapsulated by the phrase "Electronic Pearl Harbor." This, we take as a given that which has yet to be shown as a true threat. In fact, the reporting is so exaggerated that now there are Web sites devoted to debunking the myths around threats posed by computer viruses. (4)
George Smith, editor of ôThe Crypt Newsletter,ö documents in detail many of the so-called instances of widespread computer hacking that have been exaggerated or downright false. The numbers have been inflated, and some reports have just been overt hoaxes and myths. Smith does not subscribe to the theory that an EPH is just waiting to happen; he has a solid factual ...