kely to take many decades and efforts at international arbitration or mediation, while inevitable, are unlikely to achieve permanent results.
1. Historical origins of the conflict
(a) Tsarist southward expansion and the partitions of Armenia and the Azerbaijan area.
(b) Intensification of nationalism in Armenia as a result of the World War I Turkish massacres and the short-lived Armenian and Azeri independence during the Russian Civil War of 1918-1921.
(c) Josef Stalin's decision to award Nagorno-Karabakh to the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic and the other effects of Soviet rule, 1921-1987.
2. Impact of the disintegration of the Soviet Union on the emergence of nationalist sentiment in Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan; Mikhail Gorbachev's attempts to prevent secession and his temporizing with the Nagorno-Karabakh problem; and the growth of tensions between Armenia and the Armenian nationalists in Nagorny-Karabakh and the Azeri reaction, as war-triggering events.
3. Consequences of the failed August, 1991 coup on internal developments within Armenia and Azerbaijan and the importance of Boris Yeltsin's tilt toward Armenia on the outcome of the 1991-1994 war.
4. The degree of influence of Russian efforts to mediate a cease-fire, and other more important factors, in producing an uneasy truce in 1994.
5. Russian efforts since 1994 to reassert their influence in the region, as compared with the effects of other forces, including the development of xenophobic and authoritarian politics in Armenia and Azerbaijan, the economic consequences of the war and the economic blockade of Armenia, the increased involvement of Turkey and Iran in the conflict and the importance of oil politics.
6. Uncertainties concerning the future course of the conflict, including the likelihood of renewed conflict, the impossibility of turning the secessionist clock back, the possible effects of Russian political inst...