obson and Fravel said in 1997 that "China can maintain a naval presence in the South China Sea, but it cannot conduct sustained combat operations" there (p. 256). That, too, is only a matter of time.
2. South China Sea -The Spratley Islands Issue
Conflict Over the Status of Taiwan. The most likely area of major conflict in the South China Sea within the next few years is over Taiwan. Under the 1972 U.S.-PRC Shanghai Communique and subsequently, the United States has recognized that Taiwan is part of China, but it has insisted that differences between Taiwan and China be resolved peacefully. In the 1990s, the Taiwanese have resisted negotiations leading toward Taiwan's incorporation into mainland China. The PRC has shown increasing signs of impatience, as reflected in the 1996 crisis in the Taiwan Straits, when the Chinese staged amphibious maneuvers in the vicinity and lobbed missiles without warheads over Taiwan. That crisis was defused after t
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