Geopolitical Power in 2015

Predictions regarding the balance of geopolitical power in the year 2015 depend on the view that is taken of the nature and future role of the nation-state and the continuing importance of nationalism, territorialism, and the future of global economic relations. Realist conceptions of the nation-state and the balance of power assume that the bipolar balance of power will renew itself as some counterforce rises to balance U.S. power. And the relations between poor South and rich North are often viewed in terms of the core and periphery model of dependence theory which argues that the core industrialized nations block development in the periphery. But the most promising, in the sense of the most likely to be correct, views of the future are being developed by those who consider how, in the last twenty years, the world's "spatial practices, the ways in which space is produced and used, have changed." The nation-state is far from disappearing but it is evolving under the pressure of changes in other spheres of activity.

This is very different from the view that transnational actors or institutions will impose some kind of central authority on the world system. Nor is it like the claim that the individual state will disappear into cooperative groups or surrender responsibility for itself. The prevalence of nationalist feeling and the number of current ethnic and nationalist conflicts in the world make it very unlikely that such changes will take place in a mere twenty ye

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h other nations to ensure its security. Wars are likely, but they become less likely in a bipolar world where there are only two superpowers. A multipolar system with three or more great powers opens the possibility of wars across any number of combinations of the greater and the lesser powers. Realists say that the current unipolar system will be widely perceived as undesirable since, "a country wielding overwhelming power could not for long be expected to behave with moderation [and] other countries, alone or in concert, will [now] try to bring American power into balance." The greater stability of a bipolar system means that another nation is likely to rise to fill the gap whenever a unipolar system exists. As Waltz points out, Russia still retains an enormous military capability and Japan has great economic power. But a nation's power depends on a combination of a number of factors: "size of population and territory, resources endowment, economic capability, military strength, political stability and competence." Russia is unlikely to make rapid progress back to the combination of factors that enabled it to maintain enormous military capability simply because that capability was based on its willingness to disregard t

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