ts would lead to a Central Asian, a North African or a Middle Eastern group, these appear to be less likely possibilities in view of the current level of factionalism in certain areas (such as ethnic conflict in the former Soviet republics in Central Asia) and the relative wealth of others (such as the oil nations of the Middle East).
The United States and China will remain the predominant powers in terms of military capacity and those nations most interested in obtaining their security through military means (such as India, Pakistan, and Iran) or through individual economic effort (such as Japan or South Korea) will experience a reduction in their international influence (Japan) or increases in regional influence that are out of proportion to their economic power in international terms (India or Pakistan). Important changes in power relations, especially regional balances of power, will occur, however, if any nation obtains the technology to build and deploy nuclear weapons with relative ease. The chances of this are fairly high since Pakistan,
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