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The Geopolitical Future

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What will be the balance of geopolitical power in twenty years? Although different nation-states will be the players, it will resemble the multipolar balance-of-power that dominated 19th century Europe. The idea of "power" will be different than the 1800s concept. But there will be these key characteristics: (1) There will not be a return to the Cold War era's bipolar balance-of-power. (2) There will be a general peace created by a multipolar balance of international powers working together to enforce that peace. (3) Those international powers will be competitors, but they will nevertheless create alliances to maintain peace - because it will be in their best interests to do so. The geopolitical future will be a continuation of the present status quo, then, albeit with a certain hardening of positions.

To define the current status quo, one must start with the admission that ours is a time of transition. With the end of the Cold War, the world lost the stability of a bipolar geopolitical balance-of-power and entered a phase of multipolar uncertainty. Some observers consider the current situation to be unipolar. It is their contention that the United States is the sole remaining "superpower" now that the Soviet Union is defunct. Others challenge the concept of a U.S. hegemony: they consider the "new world order" an inherently unstable situation. In their opinion, the United States is staggering away from Cold War victory as damaged as the former Union of Soviet

. . .
to Max Weber's theory of politics. According to analyst/scholar Randall Collins, Weber's theory of politics, though not specifically spelled-out, infers "that internal politics is intimately connected with external geopolitics ... from the outside in". In this paper's forecast of the geopolitical future, there will be no isolationism on the scale that American nationalists such as Pat Buchanan envision: interdependence among the core powers will be the metier. Although only three core members have been mentioned so far, China and Russia also be a part of the future multipolar balance-of-power. China and Russia will be treated diplomatically as core members because of their size and military capabilities. Neither nation-state, however, will possess an economic capability equitable to the strength of Japan, the E.C. and the United States (although China has the greater potential of the two to grow into that prominence). Neither China nor Russia, then, will be in the same decision-making position as the primary core powers. As just mentioned above, China is in a stronger position than Russia: its economy has been steadily growing for the past two decades - attracting Western investment - and it has the more immediate pote
. . .

Some common words found in the essay are:
Cold War, Soviet Union, Xiaoping China, Gulf War, Hindu-dominated India, Rwandan Somalian, European Community, China Russia, Russia Austria-Hungary, Central Asian, cold war, status quo, internal legitimacy, core powers, european community, soviet union, japan european community, multipolar balance-of-power, japan european, 19th century, ethnic liberation, weber's theory politics, ethnic liberation movements, university california press, john wiley sons,
Approximate Word count = 2679
Approximate Pages = 11 (250 words per page)

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