Bertrand Russell's Philosophy

The purpose of Russell's argument, as presented in Chapter 6 ("On Induction") of his book The Problems of Philosophy, is to see if we can rationally extend the realm of knowledge to matters beyond our "private experience." The basis of the inquiry is the argument that "It must be known to us that the existence of some one sort of thing, A, is a sign of the existence of some other sort of thing, B, either at the same time as A or at some earlier or later time, as, for example, thunder is a sign of the earlier existence of lightning" (p. 60).

With respect to the argument at hand, then, Russell is seeking to discover if we can conclude that the sun will rise tomorrow (B) because the sun has risen every morning in the past, as far as we know. The question boils down to "whether the laws of motion will remain in operation until to morrow" (p. 61).

The principle being investigated by Russell in this and in any similar argument is the principle of induction. This principle holds that "When a thing of a certain sort A has been found to be associated with a thing of a certain other sort B, and has never been found dissociated from a thing of the sort B, the greater the number of cases in which A and B h

. . .
he probability" (p. 67). The essence of the inductive principle is that it can neither be fully disproved nor fully proved. It is merely an indicator of probabilities, with that probability increasing as the data supporting the premise increases without exception, as in the case of the sun rising tomorrow as it has risen every day in the past, as far as we know. Clearly, if the rising of the sun can be called into question even in the slightest, then all of the elements of our world and our belief and our certainty can be called into question. Russell is not intending to argue that we can know nothing and might as well give up trying. He is merely pointing out that we have not justified our beliefs, our apparent certainties, as fully as we might think we have. For he writes, reasonably, that . . . All knowledge which, on a basis of experience tells us something about what is not experienced, is based upon a belief which experience can neither confirm nor confute, yet which, at least in its more concrete applications, appears to be as firmly rooted in us as many of the facts of experience" (p. 69). In other words, Russell seems here to be accepting the "facts of experience" as true events. He is not questioning whether
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