The methodology used in this study will be quantitative in nature. A quantitative methodology is one in which the basis of the study findings are the results of the analyses of numerical data relevant to the issues investigated.
There is a widely held recognition that the United States is susceptible to oil blackmail because of the countryÆs heavy dependence on imported energy. There also is a widely held recognition that many populations, groups, and countries, around the world resent the actions of the United States in its conduct of international relations. Considered together, these factors could lead some countries as a group to attempt to use the oil weapon against the United States. The question, within the context of the international relations theory of realism, is such a use of the oil weapon against the United States likely. This study will investigate the likelihood of the use of the oil weapon, as a function of the economic costs and benefits for a group of oil countries should they use such a weapon against the United States.
The variables in this study will be (1) economic costs and (2) economic benefits for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in relation to using the oil weapon against the United States. The operationalization of economic costs will include the value of (1) lost crude oil revenues from the United States and (2) the costs of economic sanctions imposed by the United States. The operationalization of economic benefits will include the value of (1) increased oil revenues from other countries and (2) increased trade from countries sympathetic to the use of the oil weapon. The hypothesis investigated is that costs will outweigh benefits, thereby assuring that countries will not use the oil weapon.
The research will obtain the data necessary to test this hypothesis by administering a brief survey to a sample of university professors in the economics and political scien