earon, regards states as rational actors that weigh risks, but may miscalculate those risks, leading to war. The other model, typified by Levy and Richardson, introduces domestic politics as a factor. It will be argued below that the later model provides a fuller explanation of the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, which cannot be adequately understood without considering the internal political dynamics of the two powers involved.
While in a broad sense the Tigris and Shatt-al-Arab form a "natural" boundary, the actual situation on the ground was and is a good deal less precise. Much of the population of southern Iraq, though Arabic-speaking, is Shia; thus potentially aligned with Iran on sectarian grounds. At the same time, neighboring portions of Iran are also inhabited by Arabic-speaking Shias who, while aligned in religion with most other Iranians, are distinct from them in language and culture, and thus potentially subject to disaffection.
On both sides of the Iran-Iraq border, thus, are populations with potentially di
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