ator approach, failed to predict the 1929 stock market crash and ensuing depression, and so was abandoned as a widely used tool. Labor market analysis became popular and was used during World War II to predict the postwar economy, but it too was abandoned when the depression it predicted in the post-war years did not happen. Econometric modeling, which has gained recent favor, is experiencing strong criticism because it failed to predict the economic downturns of the 1970s (Ascher, 1978, p. 60).
There is a danger in abandoning a model simply because of dramatic errors. Models are designed to predict general behavior, not radical change. So long as this consideration is understood when the models are
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