nd Control Center in Bombay was noticed in 1997. At that point, there was a detectable increase in the annual number of deaths among young and middle-aged men in Bombay. The Research Center analyzed age and sex specific mortality data from city municipal records for the past ten years, noting that the absolute number of deaths among men from 25-44 was "substantially higher" than expected, with 4,120 excess deaths in 1996 alone. Experts infer from this data that the excess deaths were probably the result of opportunistic infections associated with HIV, including tuberculosis, since there were no new epidemics or other issues likely to cause that effect. In addition, there were no excess deaths among women or men in other age groups at that time, which Professors Hira noted was indicative of the first wave of HIV infections (Mudur, 1997)
The epidemic in India has the potential to be at least as devastating as in the developed world, because of the vast population and the under-development of the health care delivery system. While it began as a disease primarily of the urban areas, it has begun to move into rural areas, according to a UN study. For example, in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, the infection rate and number of cases is growing significantly faster in rural areas than in cities (McNeil, 2000).
That same UN study noted that while India had a low infection rate, at present, it still had more than four million cases. Although the government disputes this figure, and there have been several different estimates from different organizations, it seems likely that a figure in the millions is an accurate one. Even with a low infection rate, this can mean a rapid increase in the number of cases to deal with, effectively overwhelming the health care system.
McNeil (2000) noted that this could be devastating for India, as it has been for Africa. There are not as many social services available in rural areas as in th...