The development of an early warning system to predict and thereby potentially prevent genocides and other mass murders has been undertaken by various groups, including an organization known as the Fund for Peace (1), which offered a twelve-point set of signs that genocide might be pending. Fund for Peace (2) considers variables such as mounting demographic pressures, refugee movements creating complex humanitarian emergencies, legacies of vengeance-seeking, chronic/sustained human flight, uneven economic development by groups, sharp or severe economic declines, delegitimization or criminalization of the state, deteriorating public services, violations of human rights, a secret security apparatus, rise of factionalized elites, and intervention of external actors. These are all signs of deteriorating circumstances that can give rise to mass murder or genocide.
The model includes cultural as well as economic and political constructs. It demonstrates understanding of how various factors, including ethnicity and long-standing tensions between groups, can combine to foster the kind of internal conflict that may led to genocidal movements. The model further illustrates how sequential developments exacerbate conditions and allow tensions and pressures to build over time. Using specific software programs, the model can be useful in predicting the likelihood of an outbreak of such violence and can indicate when and how interventions are most likely to be of value.
Fund For Peace. "Failed States Index." 2008. 21 Apr. 2008