bed and assessed in the third study (Proctor & Bowles, 1992, pp. 105-124). The fourth study considered the use of Doppler radar in the forecasting of thunderstorms (Kennedy, Westcott, & Scott, 1993, pp. 1860-1870). A methodology involving real-time automated identification tracking for short-term thunderstorm forecasting was discussed in the fifth study (Dixon & Wiener, 193, pp. 785-797).
Northeastern Colorado Tornadic Thunderstorm
Although in summer of 1985 the synoptic environment "did not favor tornadic thunderstorms, strong thunderstorms formed in a localized area" during a two-hour period on the afternoon of 26 July and produced a tornado that lasted 18 minutes (Szoke & Brady, p. 1834). In part, this activity was the result of "interaction among mesoscale outflow and stationary boundaries" (p. 1834). Of special relevance in this context was a "deepening moist layer in association with the convergent wind field" along the Denver Convergence-Vorticity Zone (DCVZ), a stationary boundary. Significant also was the presence of sunshine over that portion of the stationary boundary where the collision occurred with the mesoscale outflow.
Three experimenting groups with access to relevant data, along with the National Weather Service, issued forecasts of probable thunderstorm activity (Szoke & Brady, p. 1834). The National Weather Service issued standard Denver local and Colorado zone warnings, while the PROFS RT85 group issued a severe thunderstorm alert, and both the C12/PROFS group and the C12/Radar group issued 30-minute and 60-minute radar reflectivity probability forecasts (p. 1837). The earliest forecast was issued by the National Weather Service based on data from surface and upper-level synoptic data, numerical model output, radar, mesonet, profiler, and special soundings. The forecast predicted a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms over Northeastern Colorado.
A Skew - T long plot showed sounding that were stee...