the United
States more recently, has been relatively atypical, inasmuch as
"the particular country that is dominant in a given time tends to
be replaced in this role sooner or later by another country;"2
and (2) many factors can contribute to a decline in the power of
of a nation, but Taylor says that "a declining hegemony seems
to occur when product efficiency is no longer sufficient to
dominate rivals.3Kennedy adds, "all great powers [tend] to
overstretch themselves militarily . . . and economic decline sets
in."4The Soviet Union, despite its considerable nuclear and
other military capabilities, has broken up, largely because of
the deficiencies of its economic system. Russia, because of its
size and vast resources, will remain a great power during the
next 20 years, but it will surely not rank among the top five
economically. The United States, despite the drag exerted on its
economy by defense and welfare state expenditures, large
international trade and domestic deficits and its internal
problems, will continue to be a leading, if not the leading,
economic power in the world over the next 20 years, and its
decline in geopolitical terms will be gradual. Kennedy says that
"the United States will still be a very significant Power in a
multi polar world, simply because of its size."5
Western Europe, whose combined output rivals the United
States, will remain a great power, but its influence will be greater or less, depending on its degree of economic integration,
which is already far advanced, and its political unity as a bloc,
which is in an embryonic stage. Its other principal weaknesses
are its reluctance to part with the financial burdens of the
welfare state and its inclination toward economic protectionism.
The Economist said in 1994 that "the Europeans have not yet
launched any coherent attack on the social costs [of the welfa...