was the day of the New Hampshire primary. The temperature there topped out in the low 40s. The voter turnout percentage was in the high 70s. When it rained in Burbank on election day two years ago, it tamped down the turnout to a frail 20 percent (Morrison 5).
From this 1996 reference, voter turnout seems to be affected by rain in areas less accustomed to rain, while cold temperatures in New Hampshire are common and do not deter voters.
Also in 1996, voters in Atlanta were threatened with rain, but in this case the rain did not keep voters from the polls:
The Georgia secretary of state's office predicted 61.5 percent of the state's more than 3.8 million registered voters would cast ballots by the time polls close at 7 p.m. today, compared with a 73.2 percent turnout in 1992 (Morris and Towns A1).
In the 1995 mayoral race in San Francisco, the local newspaper addressed the issue:
The San Francisco registrar of voters said Tuesday's turnout was unexpectedly low, largely because of heavy rains and powerful winds that buffeted the city much of the day. At least 30 polling places were without power throughout the day, forcing workers and voters to rely on flashlights and candles (Warren and Morain A1).
In this case, rain does seem to have reduced turnout; in fact, however, the effect of the rain more than the rain itself made the difference because the rain produced a power outage. Would voter turnout have been reduced by rain but no power outage?
Such anecdotal references cannot be considered definitive. In any case, other factors affect voter turnout, and rain, while it may have an effect, is not the only thing depressing voter turnout. In addition, knowing how many people would have voted if it had not rained is nearly impossible. Voter turnout is expressed as a percentage of those registered to vote, not of those willing to vote. Efforts to increase registration are often intended to increase voter p...