article in major discussions related to (1) a description of the problem addressed, (2) the solution design process and the resulting design, (3) the implementation of the DSS, including validation, and (4) conclusions drawn as a result of the project experience. The four conclusions drawn were that (1) principles of integration may be applied to a complex commercial problem, (2) the integrated expert system concept may include multiple database applications, (3) an expert system may be employed as a part of a modular system, and (4) loose coupling of DSS components may be advantageous at lower levels of complexity.
The successful development of an expert system that can be used as a component of a DSS represents an important step forward. Business planners, as human beings, have deficits when compared to computers. Humans, as an example, have short attention spans, where that of a computer is virtually unlimited. Humans cannot consider simultaneously more than about four hypotheses, while there are few such limits applicable to computers. The speed of the human brain is also inferior to that of the computer. All of these factors contribute to the value to organizations of a DSS for business planning that incorporates an expert system.
Automated reason systems for computers are being developed in the form of expert systems. Just how effective the judgments and conclusions drawn by such expert systems will be in the future will be determined by the ability to accurately define the data included in knowledge bases, and by the ability to state problems with sufficient preciseness to permit the drawing of conclusions and the making of judgments through an automated process.
Expert systems, however, tend work best within domains that are well bounded. The extent that an increasing number of domains may be so bounded in the future will materially affect the future contribution of expert systems to organizations. This partic...